Mind The Gap

Public opinion is, in a word, complex. Surface-level questions & analysis can give the illusion that voters have informed opinions and strongly held, coherent belief systems. But more often than not, public opinion is a vast web of loosely held and seemingly conflicted preferences. Voters’ minds have many gaps:

• Between their expressed principles (e.g. racial equality is good and important) and their willingness to endorse policies that would live up to those principles (e.g. affirmative action)

• Between one expressed preference (e.g. support for mass deportations) and another (e.g. but not for law-abiding people)

• Between what they believe about themselves (e.g. I am a careful, rational decision-maker) and what is true about human nature (we take many shortcuts based on heuristics, symbols, and yes, biases)

This is a newsletter geared towards demystifying what I often call “the why behind the what.” When public opinion data doesn’t push beyond a voter’s expressed preference (the “what”) to probe the deeper psychological motivations or attitudes beneath it (the “why”), they risk fundamentally misrepresenting the public’s views. As a political psychologist and pollster, excavating “the why behind the what” is my guiding framework. While I am a pollster for Change Research, this newsletter consists solely of my personal views and interpretations.

Mind the Gap is meant to be a medium for exploring public opinion data, trends, and headlines through the lens of political psychology, an interdisciplinary field that blends social psychology and political science. What do people actually mean when they say “the economy” is in bad shape? Why do people embrace Social Security and Medicare, but not SNAP or Medicaid? Why do people express support for a value but not the policies that would help us live those values?

If these types of questions pique your interest, you’re in the right place. Welcome to Mind The Gap!